ART provides third party guarantees for objects sold at auction. Examples of our forecasted results are available below.
ART's guarantees are based on values generated by our proprietary algorithm, Guarantee Methodology 1.0 (GM1), which mitigates risk for both consignor and guarantor.
GM1 is fundamentally a network analytical algorithm that calculates the risk-optimal price at which to guarantee a work of art, factoring in not only the distinctive attributes of the work of art, but also the risk profiles of the parties involved.
GM1's quantitatively derived guarantee value is obtained by analyzing "clusters" of objects of analogous value based only on the objective characteristics of a work of art, such as size, artist, or medium.
The methodology is both fundamental as well as comparable. Although the attributes considered by the algorithm are inherent in the work of art, ART acknowledges that art lacks a fundamental value in the same way that a company or stock price does; for that reason, GM1 quantifies a comparable analytical process across its database. GM1 uses several different mathematical techniques including logistic regression analysis, combinatorial optimization, and network analysis.
Guarantee values are accompanied by "Certainty Ratings" from 0 to 99. The Certainty Rating expands or contracts the confidence interval of the guarantee value generated by GM1. The certainty rating is calculated by a separate proprietary decay algorithm.
Sample Forecasts
ART used GM1 to calculate real-time test guarantees that were verified pre-sale by a third party CPA. To view or download ART's tables of sample results, click the links below.
Sotheby's Old Masters Paintings Sale 2322, 9 June 2010
Christie's Post-War & Contemporary Sale 2406, 11 May 2010
Christie's Russian Sale 5810, 3 December 2009
Sotheby's Latin American Sale N08595, 18 and 19 November 2009
Sotheby's Contemporary Day Sale N08593, 12 November 2009